A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry

The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index. The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent ‘the most likely possible value’, ‘the most pessimistic value’ and ‘the most optimistic value’. By using this methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision- making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured it was properly configured to meet the

Dating of the oldest continental sediments from the Himalayan foreland basin

A detailed knowledge of Himalayan development is important for our wider understanding of several global processes, ranging from models of plateau uplift to changes in oceanic chemistry and climate(1-4). Continental sediments 55 Myr old found in a foreland basin in Pakistan(5) are, by more than 20 Myr, the oldest deposits thought to have been eroded from the Himalayan metamorphic mountain belt. This constraint on when erosion began has influenced models of the timing and diachrony of the India-Eurasia collision(6-8), timing and mechanisms of exhumation(9,10) and uplift(11), as well as our general understanding of foreland basin dynamics(12). But the depositional age of these basin sediments was based on biostratigraphy from four intercalated marl units(5). Here we present dates of 257 detrital grains of white mica from this succession, using the Ar-40-(39) Ar method, and find that the largest concentration of ages are at 36-40 Myr. These dates are incompatible with the biostratigraphy unless the mineral ages have been reset, a possibility that we reject on the basis of a number of lines of evidence. A more detailed mapping of this formation suggests that the marl units are structurally intercalated with the continental sediments and accordingly that biostratigraphy cannot be used to date the clastic succession. The oldest continental foreland basin sediments containing metamorphic detritus eroded from the Himalaya orogeny therefore seem to be at least 15-20 Myr younger than previously believed, and models based on the older age must be re-evaluated